Prime Minister Dick Schoof indicated on Sunday that the Netherlands can contribute “more than just boots on the ground” as soon as a peace agreement in Ukraine comes into sight. This statement opens the door to possible deployment of Dutch military personnel in a peace mission. The question, however, is: can we deliver on this and what does it mean for our army?
Dutch defence capacity under scrutiny
The Netherlands has approximately 40,000 active military personnel, divided amongst the army, air force and navy. In addition, there are approximately 20,000 reservists available. These numbers seem substantial, but the reality is more complex than these figures suggest.
Minister of Defence Ruben Brekelmans regularly emphasises that “our armed forces must become stronger” due to the deteriorating international security situation. It is therefore essential that we strengthen our armed forces and that we continue to support Ukraine, according to the minister.
Current deployment already under pressure
Our army has been providing dozens of instructors for the training of Ukrainian soldiers in the United Kingdom since October 2022. In addition, the Netherlands has sent approximately 200 military personnel to Romania for a NATO battlegroup. These commitments demonstrate that our defence capacity is already under pressure.
The Netherlands is providing an approximately 40-strong forensic and investigation team to investigate war crimes in Ukraine. These specialists come mainly from the Royal Marechaussee and work under the flag of the International Criminal Court.
The Netherlands therefore contributes where it can, but always within limited numbers. The question is whether we can make the leap to a much larger operation.
Military planning already in place
According to Prime Minister Schoof, within the international coalition there is already military planning ready that can be taken off the shelf when a political breakthrough is near. These plans are not plucked from thin air – intensive work has been underway for months on scenarios for a peace mission.
The timing of Schoof’s statements is not coincidental. This week, crucial consultations took place in Washington between President Trump, Ukrainian President Zelensky and various European leaders. Schoof sees that meeting as a prelude to larger negotiations.
Various options on the table
Defence experts distinguish different scenarios for Western military involvement:
- Peacekeeping mission: A lightly armed neutral ‘peacekeeping mission’, which monitors a ceasefire, but may not intervene. This would be the least risky option.
- Reassurance force: Great Britain and France recently made a different proposal for a relatively small operation, where approximately 30,000 military personnel sit behind the front line to “show solidarity and reassure the country”.
- Peace enforcement mission: A stronger mission that can militarily force parties to stop fighting if they violate the ceasefire.
Risks for Dutch soldiers
The reality is that any form of military deployment carries risks. With all options, according to defence expert Bob Deen, the risk of going to war with Russia is “distinctly present” and there is a risk of Dutch casualties.
Because Europe is not neutral, but on Ukraine’s side, with both options there is the risk that such a mission becomes a combat operation against Russia.
Scale of the operation
An important point is the scale of what would be needed. To enforce a ceasefire in this area with such a long front line, hundreds of thousands of military personnel are quickly needed. For Europe, according to experts, this is politically and militarily “extremely unrealistic”.
Dutch limitations
The Netherlands faces structural challenges that complicate a large military operation. “We are more a country of army components”, says university lecturer Mengelberg. The Netherlands does not manufacture weapons itself and mainly imports weapons from other NATO countries. This dependence on foreign suppliers makes long-term operations complex. Moreover, our army already struggles to meet existing NATO obligations.
Hybrid threat at home
Whilst we are considering possible deployment in Ukraine, the Netherlands itself is already the target of Russian activities. The air force sees unknown drones around military bases. The navy sees Russian ships mapping our internet cables, gas pipelines and wind farms in the North Sea.
Minister Brekelmans warns that Russia has the Netherlands in its sights and that we are living in a grey zone, a twilight area between war and peace.
Social consequences
A peace mission in Ukraine would have not only military, but also social consequences. Suppose there really is conflict on NATO territory and the Netherlands must help defend an ally? Then the armed forces cannot do it alone. Defence must then be able to count on society.
Minister Brekelmans poses the question: “What can you do for the armed forces?” That, according to Minister Ruben Brekelmans, is the question that matters now.
Concrete consequences for citizens
For Dutch families and businesses, this would mean:
- Possible call-up of reservists
- Increased defence spending
- More military transport through the Netherlands
- Heightened vigilance for sabotage and cyber attacks
Realistic Dutch contribution
Given our limitations, a Dutch contribution would more likely consist of specialised units rather than large numbers of combat soldiers. The Netherlands has proven expertise in:
- Logistical support and transport
- Medical care and field hospitals
- Forensic investigation of war crimes
- Training and military advice
- Air traffic control
As an example, university lecturer Mengelberg mentions the German-Dutch army corps, which has been a joint unit since the 1990s. This cooperation shows how the Netherlands can contribute within European frameworks.
Political reality
Schoof emphasises that concrete deployment is not yet determined at all: there are multiple options and first it must be determined which task suits the Netherlands best — the ‘what’ question — followed by political assessment in cabinet and parliament.
This pragmatic approach is sensible. Different political parties have divergent views on foreign military deployment, and a peace mission in Ukraine would require broad political and social support.
Preparation for different scenarios
Citizens can prepare for possible developments by:
- To inform oneself about evacuation procedures
- Een noodvoorraad aan te leggen voor minimaal 72 uur
- To strengthen social networks in the neighbourhood
- To remain alert to suspicious activities
- To prepare for possible failure of vital infrastructure
Conclusion
Prime Minister Schoof’s statements about possible military support for Ukraine mark an important turning point in the Dutch attitude. Although the intention is clear, this ambition clashes with the limited capabilities of our army and the growing threat against the Netherlands itself. A realistic Dutch contribution would probably consist of specialised units within a larger European framework, not massive troop deployment. For Dutch citizens, this means that the chance of direct involvement of our own soldiers exists, but that the impact will mainly be visible in increased defence spending, social preparation and the need for a resilient society. The coming weeks will be crucial for decision-making.